There are widespread speculations that former military President, General Ibrahim Babangida has his eyes on Aso Rock come 2011 elections. In this report, Deputy Editor Adewale Adeoye examines the chances of the former leader who once ruled the country for eight controversial years
Can former military leader, General Ibrahim Babangida rule Nigeria again.? Probably the answer should be ‘yes’ and ‘no’. In the eyes of the Nigerian law, nothing debars him. But in the court of public opinion, scores of thorns lay his path. This will however depend on what public you belong to, especially in a country where truth has many colours flavoured with ethnicity, individualism, ego and faith. ‘If he contests the next election, we shall mobilize both home and global opinion against him’ the National Publicity Secretary of the Alliance for Democracy, AD, Mr Popoola Ajayi told The Nation.
Recently, Babangida was reported as saying he was ‘still consulting’ as regards 2011 presidential race. Many who have mastered his well known tradition of intrigues are reading meanings to his latest statement. Some see Babangida as a politician who acts like a typical lady in a love tango who would never say "yes" or "no" to a love proposal. When she says ‘No’ she means ‘maybe’ and when she says ‘maybe’ she actually means "Yes I do’. So recently when Babangida reportedly said he was still consulting on the 2011 presidential race, those conversant with his political tradition are anxious to conclude that the former dictator, who ran the country for close to a decade, under his iron fists, actually meant ‘yes, I wlll contest the election.’
In the past, observers say Babangida had said things he would later deny, and had denied things he would later say.
Some analysts think at 69, if his official age is real, the 2011 election seems his best and possibly last chance to seek control of the Nigerian state again. But will he contest the race? If he does, can he breast the tape? The pendulum that swings to his side is the fact that given the current geo-political equation, what seems to have almost become an unwritten constitution among all the political parties is the fact that the North should produce the president in 2011.
Babangida is from the North. But there is a clause, a very significant one. The slot of the north should terminate in 2015 when the baton is expected to go to the South, meaning that the North’s candidate, even if Babangida is one of them, will only have a maximum of four years, yet Babangida has no reputation for handing over whatever he holds so easily without sometimes a messy, if not bloody fight. Again, there are strong indications that President Umaru Yar’Adua, despite unconfirmed reports of his ill health, said to be occasioned by kidney related ailments, is anxious to seek re-election come 2011. Already, a contact committee has been put in place led by some Peoples Democratic Party, PDP chieftains a like Tony Anenih, Iwuanyanwu and many others, are part of the new machinery. Analysts think Babangida’s arithmetic ignores this reality to his own peril. ‘Babangida will come out to contest the 2011 election. He is already oiling his political machinery’, one reliable source hinted The Nation. The source told how Babangida held a ‘political dinner’ with his associates recently in Minna, the Niger-State capital. The source claimed that many former military administrators who served under his government (1985-1993) were gathered. ‘Though Babangida did not expressly disclose his intention, but the attendants participants at the meeting knew his intension was to rule the country again,’ the source claimed.
Other factors might make the race a virgin contest among contending, sometimes mutually inclusive Northern interests. For instance, The Nation gathered that Northern leaders are worried about the floundering fortunes of the Nigerian state, the mounting threats to unity of the country, which the north desperately deserves for obvious economic reasons, and under President Yar’Adua’s, government and the fact that a new person from the North in 2011 will make it easier for the North to toy with elongated rule through the backdoor. ‘The North has never been so vulnerable, would wish Yar’Adua to continue in office, but we are concerned there is the need for a stronger personality to stir the affairs of the state,’ one top PDP member told The Nation saying that the current leadership has failed woefully to manage the seething religious, ethnic and political crisis that continue to threaten the already fragile foundation of the country.
The source said the core-North is worried that if Yar’Adua gets a second chance and midway he fails to push ahead, given possible natural factors, the Vice-President, a Southerner would emerge and that would offer an elongated tenure to the South through the 2015 election. The source said there are concerns about ‘the health of the President.’ There is the thinking among a section in the north The Nation heard last Wednesday that it is better for the zone to produce an alternative candidate in 2011. The source also hinted that such an alternative candidate will give a double edge advantage to the north, chief of which is the possible of such a fresh candidate spending eight years in power, providing an additional four-year term to the North. ‘There is the plan to pick another presidential candidate from the North with a vice president from the Igbo East’ the source hinted.
One Babangida’s aide said the former military president is watching the political calculus for him to take adequate leap. On the other hand however, several factors seem to stand as obstacles to Babangidas possible game plan. Top on the list remains his eight year tyrannical rule which left the country reeling in anguish. He came into power in 1985, exploiting the euphoric anti-human, anti-media rights and the obvious plans to delink from Western dependency, under Gen Mohammadu Buhari, his predecessor. IBB came to power on August 27, 1985 in a bloodless coup which swept away his superiors. There were rumors that before he struck, the army authority had put a search light on his ‘nefarious’ activities and that he would have been retired from the army if not for the coup he staged. Initially, Babangida struck the nation as a liberalizing force when, at the budding state of his regime, he released political prisoners, abrogated the obnoxious anti-press Decree 4 of 1984. He also rose to meet initial admiration based on the self-initiated mystery of his ancestry, leaving many to guess he was Yoruba from Ogbomoso or was both Yoruba and Hausa-Fulani, two domineering ethic blocs in Nigeria. He was latter to denounce the speculation about his root when his government issued official statement that he hails from Bagawatse of the Sulubawa stock in Sokoto, affirming his Fulani ancestry, but that was years after he had stabilized his regime. He also initially selected a cabinet considered by many as fine apart from his populist programs like Directorate for Food, Road and Rural Infrasture DFRRI, Mass Mobilisation for Social and Economic Recovery MAMSER, National Directorate of Employment NDE and the Peoples Bank.
Later Babangida introduced what many considered the worst economic and political systems never witnessed before in the country’s troubled history. He was generally seen as a deceitful leader who mastered the pauperization of his people and ended up enriching himself and his rookies, Ayo Awosode, a strong member of the Nigerian Bar Association in Ibadan told The Nation.
An official of the Movement for the survival of Ogoni People, MOSOP, Mr. Patrick Nagbaton told our correspondent that Babangidas second coming ‘will spell doom for Nigeria’ saying that his regime set the tone for the emasculation of the Ogoni People and the entire people of the Niger-Delta.
Leader of the Supreme Egbesu Assembly SEA, Mr. Digifa Warinipre told The Nation that ‘I will be surprised to see any political party listing Babangida as it’s presidential candidate.’
IBB’s government sought and obtained loans from the International Monetary Fund, IMF after a well tailored public debate the conclusion of which he already drew, ab initio. The loan and the consequent introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP sent the nation’s economy tumbling down the cliff. Poverty, want, deprivation and hopelessness took the better part of the country. When Babangida came to power in 1985, the value of the naira was 1 to 5 dollars, by the time he left power, the value of the naira had depreciated to 1 to 80 dollars. Unemployment rose in geometric progression, manufacturers closed shops, the commanding height of the economy was privatised and sold to his cronies, millions lost their jobs and societal values pummeled to an all time low and the dignity once associated with the image of Nigeria home and abroad, ebbed.
His human rights records were horrendous.
For instance, despite global outrage, IBBs government took the lives of several senior military officers in 1986, including that of Gen Mamman Vasta who was his best man when he married Mariam. He accused Vatsa of planning to overthrow his government. In 1990, about 78 young soldiers linked to the April 22 1990 putsch were shot dead by his government. Many of those killed claimed innocent. The martial court usually had the defence lawyer and the judge provided by the military. His government deliberately launched an offensive against the university system, attacking ideological lecturers which he accused of revolutionizing the students movement. In one instance, his armed men pounced on Dr Patrick Wilmot who was sent out of the country from the Ahmadu Bello University, ABU. In another instance, his Secret Service agents pounced on Dr Festus Iyayi, then of the University of Benin. Iyayi’s household was thrown into the streets in broad day light.
IBB carried out similar attacks on students and the intelligentsia, a generation of which never completed their education up till today or were compelled to flee the country. Many continue to link the spate of violence and rise in cultism in Nigerian Universities to Babangida. One retired soldier who worked in the espionage department of the Directorate of Military Intelligence, DMI told The Nation that Babangida armed several reactionary students on campus in his bid to emasculate the student movement, the result of which was the mushrooming of armed cult groups. The labour movement also faced direct onslaught from IBB. He did not only ban and unbanned the Nigerian Labour Congress, NLC, he also imposed administrative cronies.
Critics say under Babangida, corruption, naked abuse of power, opaque system of governance became almost elevated to the level of the directive principle of state policies. On IBB, Dr Timothy Othman of the Manitoba, California, US University wrote: ‘Despite the laudable policies and programs (of IBB), Nigeria went through catastrophic economic collapse. During the IBB era, official corruption expanded dramatically. The cancer consumed every government establishment at all levels impeding sincere execution of developmental projects.’
His iron fist rule was backed by draconian laws that held captive once a vibrant and prosperous nation. Though his supporters describe him as being liberal with everything including cash, but some think that such only epitomized the spendrift nature of his government and the share lack of decency in the utilization of public fund. His enemies insist IBB ruined every sector he believed was opposed to him including his own constituency, the "military": His government survive on the ruins of ethnic cleavages which he helped fuel.
Born in Minna, he had no higher civil education apart from his military training. He joined the army in 1970, at a time of the civil war when the force was largely propelled by the need to unite the country at all cost and not based on any compelling humanitarian ideology. His rise in the army, like many of his contemporaries has little link with any statesmanship achievements but rather propelled by his place of birth, the advantages and pecks associated with his being a potential crony of the Northern oligarchy and the usually noticeable membership of a wing of the military that seems committed to a blind determination to defend a significantly decadent status quo.
But there are those who think that the heinous economic and political harm committed by IBB’s successors, first by Gen Sanni Abacha, whose agents killed political opponents on the streets, hounded the nation to a state of coma, President Olusegun Obasanjo, whose soldiers sacked a whole Odi village, leaving sorrows, tears and blood, and even now with the recent onslaught on the Niger-Delta people, show that IBB’s failings are not extraordinary. ‘If the tunnel look irredeemably dark, then what is special in another blind leading the flock’ a clergy man who does not want to be named told The Nation on Wednesday. But Madam Kudirat Naibi who sells grocery in downtown Lagos took solace in the saying of the common man ‘IBB for president again,? Ha, for this country anything can happen. But, one day one day, monkey go go market, he no go come back.’ Her expression of hope is that one day, the circle of deceitful lordship and cruel manipulation of the Nigerian people may one day be brought to an end. But that remains a wish, a mere wish.